Trade on the outcomes of real-world events across sports, politics, crypto, and culture in the Phantom mobile app. Outside the United States, prediction markets in Phantom are powered by World Prediction Markets on Solana.

You can browse markets, make a prediction, track your position, and cash out when liquidity is available. Winning payouts are credited automatically after settlement.

In the US? See Trade Kalshi prediction markets in Phantom (US).

Before you start #

• Check availability. Prediction markets are available only to eligible users in supported jurisdictions. See Feature availability by region.
• Keep SOL available for network fees. You’ll need a small amount when opening, increasing, or cashing out positions using tokens from your portfolio. Trades funded from your Cash account are gasless.
• Do not trade if you have access to non-public information that could give you an unfair advantage.

Make a prediction #

1. Open the Phantom mobile app.
2. Go to the Predict tab and browse available markets.
3. Open a market to review the event, outcomes, current chances, and rules.
4. Choose an outcome, then choose Yes or No.
5. Enter the amount you want to spend and choose your payment source. You can use your Cash balance or any token on Solana.
6. Review the quote and fees.
7. Confirm your order.

Once your position opens, you can find it under Predictions on the Home tab and on the Predict tab.

Track your position #

Find your open positions under Predictions on the Home tab or on the Predict tab. If you bought multiple outcomes for the same event, you can also find them under Your Positions on the event page.

Tap a position to view its performance and details:

Increase your position #

Buy more contracts for the same outcome at current market prices.

1. Tap an open position.
2. Tap Buy More.
3. Enter the amount you want to spend and choose your payment source.
4. Review the quote and fees.
5. Confirm your order.

Cash out #

You can sell an open position before the market resolves if liquidity is available. The amount you receive depends on the prices and available buyers when you sell.

1. Tap an open position.
2. Tap Cash Out.
3. Review the sale amount and fees.
4. Confirm the sale.

The proceeds arrive in your Cash account.

Cashing out requires a buyer for your contracts. If there are too few buyers, you may be unable to sell at your preferred price or sell at all, even when your position shows a profit.

View your trading history #

1. Tap your profile avatar in the upper left.
2. Tap History.
3. Tap Trade to view your prediction trading activity.

Purchase entries begin with Bought and identify the market. When a position settles, the result appears as Won for a correct prediction or Lost for an incorrect prediction.

Your purchase and settlement appear as separate entries. Buying more contracts or cashing out can add entries for the same market.

Dispute a market outcome #

Resolution and payout data comes from World Prediction Markets. If you believe a market resolved incorrectly, contact Phantom Support.

Fees #

Check the fee breakdown before confirming a trade or cashing out.

Phantom calculates the prediction fee using the contract price and the number of contracts traded:

Prediction fee = 0.1 * p * (1 - p) * C

Where:

• p = contract price, expressed as a decimal between 0 and 1.
• C = number of contracts traded.

Fees are lowest near contract prices of $0 or $1 and highest near $0.50.

For example, buying 100 Yes contracts at $0.75 each incurs a Phantom fee of $1.875.

Market resolution and payouts #

Resolution #

Resolution determines which outcome satisfies the market’s published rules. Phantom does not decide the result.

An event ending does not necessarily mean the market has settled. For sports and other real-world events, a provisional result may be followed by a challenge period before final settlement. Sports results can take around 10–15 minutes to resolve, but some markets take longer.

Check the market’s rules. Estimated resolution times are not deadlines. See When does a market settle?

Crypto market outcomes #

Crypto markets use the price source and calculation specified in their rules. Some use a time-weighted average price, or TWAP, which measures the average price over a defined period.

A chart from another exchange may use different prices or timestamps. A green candle alone does not establish that an Up prediction won.

See Who decides the outcome of a market? and What is a TWAP?

Settlement #

Settlement processes positions and payouts according to the resolved outcome.

• If your prediction is correct: Your payout is credited automatically as CASH to the Phantom account that was active when the market resolved. For example, if Account 1 was active, the payout goes to Account 1.
• If your prediction is incorrect: Your position settles at $0, and the amount you spent is not returned.

Unclear outcomes #

Some markets cannot resolve to a clear Yes or No, such as when an event is voided or postponed indefinitely. Depending on the market’s rules, both outcomes may receive a partial payout.

See World’s explanation of unclear outcomes.

Outcome tokens #

Your position is represented by standard Solana SPL tokens called outcome tokens. You may see them in blockchain explorers and History.

Phantom supports using these tokens to cash out or claim payouts only through the app.

Troubleshooting #

I can’t cash out or see “Quote unavailable” #

Cashing out means selling your contracts to a buyer. If no buyers are available for your outcome, Phantom cannot provide a cash-out quote. If demand is limited, the amount you can receive may be lower than expected.

Your displayed position value is not a guaranteed cash-out amount. A position can show a positive value or a profit even when you cannot sell it.

My position disappeared #

Positions leave the Predict tab and Predictions after resolution, whether they won or lost. You can find your past trades and settlement activity in History.

My payout is pending #

Check the market’s rules and status. An event ending, a market resolving, and a payout completing are different stages. For provider background, see My market ended, why haven’t I been paid yet?

If the position remains pending after the market should have resolved, try adding 1 CASH to your Phantom wallet. You can do so by withdrawing CASH from your Cash account.

If it remains pending, contact Phantom Support.

What to include when contacting Phantom Support #

Include the following so we can investigate:

• Market name
• Trade amount
• Approximate date and time
• Screenshots of the relevant balances or error
• Fresh app logs from Settings > Security & Privacy > Download App Logs

FAQ #

Can I trade predictions in the browser extension? #

No. Prediction markets are available only in the Phantom mobile app.

What order types are supported? #

Market orders only. Limit orders and custom order prices are not supported.

Can I cash out before the market resolves? #

Yes, if a quote is available that lets you complete the sale. See Cash out.

Where does my winning payout go? #

Your payout is credited automatically as CASH to the Phantom account that was active when the market resolved.

Look for a Won entry for the market in History. If payment has not arrived, see My payout remains pending.

Can I buy fractional contracts? #

No. Phantom supports whole contracts only. Leftover amounts are automatically refunded.

Can I use a Ledger wallet? #

No. Ledger accounts are not supported for prediction markets.

Can I build on prediction markets in Phantom? #

No. Phantom does not offer a public API for this feature, and external development is not supported.

Prediction markets in Phantom aren't available in all jurisdictions and may involve risks including volatile pricing, limited liquidity, and potential regulatory changes.

View full disclosures