Prediction markets are now available in Phantom. Browse hundreds of markets across sports, politics, crypto, and culture. Watch probabilities and scores update in real time, right from your wallet.
Opening a position is simple. Choose an outcome, pick Yes or No, and buy contracts using tokens in your wallet, including CASH. When you open a position, Phantom mints outcome tokens into your wallet to represent it. Don’t burn these tokens, since burning them can prevent you from claiming a payout.
If the outcome happens, contracts settle at $1 and you receive the payout minus fees. If it doesn’t, they settle at $0 and the amount you spent is lost. You can also cash out early, if liquidity is available.
Prediction markets are powered by Kalshi via DFlow and available in select regions. You don’t need a Kalshi account to trade. You can open positions, cash out, and claim payouts only in the Phantom app.
Tip: New to prediction markets? Learn more in our guide Trade the future with prediction markets in Phantom.
Before you begin
To trade prediction markets, you'll need the following:
- Phantom mobile app version 25.46.0 and above.
- Supported region. Prediction markets aren’t available in the US, UK, Australia, Canada, France, and other restricted regions.
- Small amount of SOL to open positions, cash out, and claim payouts. You’ll need SOL even if you’re paying for contracts with another token such as CASH or USDC. You’ll typically need at least 0.01 SOL to claim a payout.
- No insider information. You may not trade any event contract if you have access to non-public information that could give you an unfair advantage.
Trade prediction markets in Phantom
Find a prediction
- On the Home tab, tap Predictions.
- Browse featured, trending, or live predictions, or filter by category such as sports, politics, or crypto.
- Select a prediction. You’ll see the question, available outcomes, and their current chances.
Tap View Rules to read the official market rules from Kalshi, including how the market is defined and how outcomes are resolved.
Open a position
- After choosing a prediction, choose the outcome you want to trade. For example, choose Yes (you think it will happen) or No (you think it won’t).
- Enter how much you want to spend. Phantom calculates how many whole contracts your amount can buy, including applicable fees. You can only buy whole contracts, such as 1, 2, or 50 contracts—not fractions. Because each contract is always priced below $1 before settlement, the amount you enter may be less than $1.
- Confirm the token you want to pay with (for example, CASH or USDC).
- Review your order summary, including fees per contract.
- Tap Buy to place your order.
When you place a buy order, Phantom submits a swap transaction on Solana that swaps your token for outcome tokens. DFlow mints the outcome tokens (Yes tokens or No tokens) into your wallet to represent your position. You can view them under Recent Activity on the Predictions page or in a blockchain explorer.
Increase your position
- Tap an open position.
- Tap Buy More.
- Enter how much you want to spend.
- Confirm the token you want to pay with (for example, CASH or USDC).
- Review your order summary.
- Tap Buy to confirm the trade and place your order.
Track your position's performance
Tap Predictions, then tap a position to view its details:
- Value updates as market prices change.
- Change shows whether your position is up or down (green means up, red means down).
- If you want to lock in gains or cut losses before the market resolves, you can cash out early if liquidity is available.
Close your position (before the market resolves)
You can close a position before the market resolves, if liquidity is available.
- Tap an open position.
- Tap Cash Out, then sell the entire amount or part of your position.
- Review the amount you’ll get back in the Return field.
- Tap Continue to confirm.
Funds are credited to your wallet in the same token you used to buy the contracts.
Value and Cash Out may differ.
- Value is an estimate based on recent market prices.
- Cash Out is the amount the provider can execute for your sell order right now, based on available liquidity.
- These amounts can differ due to slippage, limited bids in the order book, or fast-changing prices.
Claim your payout (if you win)
After the market resolves, winning positions show Payout Available.
- Tap the position.
- Tap Close to claim your payout.
Your outcome tokens convert back into the token you used to open the position (such as CASH or USDC). You’ll typically need at least 0.01 SOL to claim a payout.
Payout status
| Status | Definition |
|---|---|
| Payout Pending | The market is closed and the result hasn’t been posted yet. This status doesn’t mean your position won. For many markets, this step is short, often around 10 to 15 minutes for sports, but some markets may take longer, sometimes days. |
| Payout Available | The result is confirmed and your payout is ready to claim. |
If you lose
If your prediction is wrong, losing contracts settle at $0 after the market resolves and the amount you spent on the position is lost.
You may not see the position under Predictions anymore, but you can still find it under Predictions → Recent Activity (clock icon), with a Lost status.
Example
When you place a buy order, you’re choosing Yes or No for a specific outcome. Each contract is priced between $0 and $1, and buying contracts mints outcome tokens into your wallet.
For example, imagine a basketball game where one team is listed at a 3% chance to win. The contract price is low—around 3¢. As a simple rule of thumb, price often tracks probability divided by 100, so 3% roughly corresponds to 3¢.
If you spend $1 on Yes contracts (the 3% chance team wins), you'll get 29 contracts (any leftover amount that can’t buy another whole contract is returned to your wallet). If you're right and the team ends up winning, each contract settles at $1, giving you a total payout of $29.
If you instead buy No contracts (the 3% chance team doesn't win), the market sees that outcome as much more likely, and the contract is priced much higher. Your $1 in this case would buy just 1 contract (with a small leftover refund). If you're right and the team ends up losing, that single contract settles at $1.
You can buy more than one outcome in a prediction.
Tip: For a deeper explanation of why prices reflect probability and how prediction markets work more broadly, see Prediction markets: Trade the future with Phantom.
Understanding outcome tokens
When you open a prediction market position, DFlow mints tokens and sends them to you. These outcome tokens are Solana-based tokens. You won’t see them in your Phantom token list, but they're visible in blockchain explorers like Solscan and in Recent Activity on the Predictions page.
You can identify outcome tokens by the following features:
- A name like Yes <prediction name> or No <prediction name>. For example, Yes Barcelona or No Above 70.
- Searching dflow in token lists/blockchain explorers.
These tokens are automatically burned when you claim your payout or cash out.
Warning: Don’t burn outcome tokens (for example, using SOL incinerator or other token cleanup tools). Burning tokens is irreversible, and Phantom can't help you recover them.
Understanding chance
Each outcome shows a percentage that reflects its implied probability, calculated from the current contract prices.
- Higher percentages mean the market is pricing the outcome as more likely.
- Lower percentages mean it’s priced as less likely.
- Percentages don’t need to add up to 100 percent.
These probabilities come from live market data provided by Kalshi, with DFlow supplying the interface that makes this data available in Phantom.
Understanding market resolution and payout calculation
When a market resolves, the provider confirms the official result. Winning contracts settle at $1 per contract minus fees, and losing contracts settle at $0.
Your final payout is based on the number of contracts you hold at settlement, not the amount you originally spent. The Payout if right value shown earlier is an estimate and may differ slightly due to:
- Partial fills or leftover refunds.
- Changes in the settlement token’s value relative to the display currency.
If you disagree with a result, contact the provider directly. For Kalshi markets, contact Kalshi support team at help.kalshi.com/contact-kalshi-support.
Phantom doesn’t determine market resolution. All resolution and payout data comes from the market provider.
Fees
| Fee | Definition |
|---|---|
| Fee per contract |
Phantom charges a dynamic fee per contract, calculated using the following formula:
Where
The exact fee per contract is shown in the order summary before you place a trade. You’ll also need a small amount of SOL in your wallet to cover network transaction fees. |
| Network fee | Even if you buy contracts using CASH or USDC, you still need SOL to cover Solana network costs. |
| Token account creation fee | In some cases, opening a position may require a one-time token account creation fee paid in SOL. This can happen when you’re the first person to trade a market and the outcome token accounts need to be created on Solana. This fee is around 0.024 SOL. |
Troubleshooting
Trading is unavailable during scheduled maintenance
Prediction markets in Phantom are powered by Kalshi via DFlow. Kalshi scheduled maintenance happens weekly from 3 am to 5 am ET on Thursdays. During Kalshi scheduled maintenance, trading is unavailable in Phantom.
I haven't received a payout or the market hasn't settled
- Check the status of the market by searching its name on kalshi.com. If the outcomes are labeled TBD, the market is still in "To be Defined" status and the result hasn’t been finalized yet. You’ll need to wait until the provider confirms the outcome.
- Look up your wallet on a Solana explorer such as Solscan to see your outcome tokens and recent transactions. This can help you confirm whether you still hold a position and which side (Yes or No) you’re on.
I don't see any markets on the Predictions page
If you're not seeing any markets on the Predictions page, or the Predictions section is missing on your Home tab, try the following:
- Confirm that you aren’t in a restricted region. Predictions aren’t available in the US, UK, Australia, Canada, France, and other restricted regions.
- If you're not in a restricted region, make sure you’re using the Phantom mobile app version 25.46.0 or above.
- Turn off any VPN apps that might affect region detection.
I burned outcome tokens by mistake
Outcome tokens represent your position. If you burned them (for example, using SOL incinerator or other token cleanup tools), Phantom can’t recover them and you won't be able to claim a payout. Burning tokens is irreversible.
I can’t claim a payout (spinning/no response)
Claiming a payout requires a small amount of SOL for network fees. If you have less than 0.01 SOL, the claim may not go through. Add SOL and try again.
FAQ
Can I turn off or hide prediction markets in Phantom?
No. Prediction markets are always visible in the Phantom app and can't be turned off.
How do profits and losses work in prediction markets?
You can profit in two ways:
- The outcome happens: Each contract you hold settles at $1, and you receive the payout minus fees.
- The price increases before resolution: You can cash out early and sell your contracts for more than you paid, if liquidity is available.
You can lose money in the following cases:
- The outcome doesn’t happen: Your contracts settle at $0, and the amount you spent is lost.
- You cash out early at a lower price: Selling your contracts for less than you paid locks in a loss.
What order types can I place?
Prediction markets in Phantom only support market buy and sell orders, which fill immediately at the best available prices based on current market liquidity. You can’t place limit orders or set custom prices.
Where are my funds sitting when I place an order?
When you make an order, your contracts are represented by outcome tokens (Yes tokens or No tokens)—Solana-based tokens held in your Phantom wallet.
How long do I need to wait until a payout is available?
Payouts become available after the market resolves and the result is confirmed by the market provider.
You may see Payout Pending even if your position ultimately loses.
In some cases, the market may be closed (you can’t buy or sell anymore) while the market provider is still posting the final result. This usually means the result is still being finalized or settlement data is still processing.
For many sports predictions, this step is often around 10 to 15 minutes, but some predictions may take longer to resolve. Once the result is confirmed, the payout becomes claimable.
Phantom doesn’t determine market resolution. All resolution and payout data comes from the market provider.
What’s the difference between a contract and a position?
A contract is the unit that settles at $1 or $0 when the market resolves. Your position is the number of contracts you hold for a specific outcome.
Where are prediction markets available?
Prediction markets are available only in supported regions outside the US, UK, Australia, Canada, France, and other restricted areas.
If you’re unsure whether prediction markets are supported where you live, try placing an order in the Phantom app. If trading isn’t available, you’ll see an in-app message letting you know.
Do I need a separate account?
No. Prediction markets use your existing multi-chain account.
Why can’t I buy fractional contracts?
Contracts can only be bought in whole units. Each contract settles at $1 if the outcome happens and $0 if it doesn’t, so fractional contracts aren’t supported. When you enter an amount that isn’t enough to buy another full contract, the leftover is returned to you automatically.
What happens if my prediction is right and I win?
If your prediction is right, you’ll see Payout Available next to your position after the market resolves. Tap the position to claim your payout. Winning contracts settle at $1 per contract minus fees.
What happens if my prediction is wrong and I lose?
If your prediction is wrong, losing contracts settle at $0 after the market resolves and the amount you spent on the position is lost (before fees).
You may not see the position under Predictions anymore, but you can still find it under Predictions → Recent Activity (clock icon), with a Lost status.
Can I close my position early?
Yes. You can sell your contracts by opening your position and tapping Cash Out → Sell.
How can I dispute a prediction market resolution?
If you want to dispute a market resolution because you believe the market was resolved incorrectly, the official result was wrong and you should've won, or the contract rules were applied incorrectly, you must follow the dispute process provided by the market provider.
For Kalshi markets, contact Kalshi support at help.kalshi.com/contact-kalshi-support.
Phantom doesn’t determine market resolution. All resolution and payout data comes from the market provider.
Glossary
| Term | Definition |
|---|---|
| Chance | The implied probability of the outcome based on current contract prices. This reflects the crowd’s view of how likely an outcome is and updates in real time as prices change. |
| Change | How much your position’s value has increased or decreased relative to the original value when you opened the position. Change reflects market movement, not the amount you spent. |
| Cash out | The amount the provider can execute for your sell order right now, based on available liquidity. |
| Claim | The action to receive your payout after a market resolves and settlement occurs. |
| Contract | A contract is the unit you buy when you choose an outcome of a prediction. Each contract is binary and settles at $1 if the outcome happens and $0 if it doesn’t. |
| Cost | The amount you spent to buy the position. Cost doesn’t change after you open the position. |
| Implied probability | A percentage that converts contract prices into a probability-like number. |
| Leftover amount | Any portion of your spend that isn’t enough to buy another full contract. This amount is automatically returned to your wallet when you open a position. |
| Market order | A request to buy or sell contracts immediately at the best available prices in the market. Market orders fill as soon as they are placed. |
| Order | A request to buy or sell contracts in a market. An order specifies the amount you want to spend or sell, the outcome you’re trading, and whether you’re taking the Yes or No direction. |
| Order book | A record of current buy and sell interest for a Yes or No market. The order book determines the prices you can trade at and the liquidity available for opening or closing positions. |
| Outcome | A possible answer to a prediction. For example, a “Team A vs Team B” basketball game would have the following outcomes: “Team A,” “Team B,” “Tie.” You can trade multiple outcomes for the same prediction. |
| Outcome tokens | Tokens that represent positions in a prediction market outcome. Each market has two types of outcome tokens: Yes tokens (representing a position that the outcome will occur) and No tokens (representing a position that the outcome won’t occur). |
| Payout if right | The full amount you’ll receive if the outcome you selected happens. This is based on the number of contracts you hold, with each contract settling at $1 minus fees. |
| Position | The number of contracts you hold for a specific outcome. Your position reflects the size of your prediction. |
| Prediction | The question you’re trading on in Phantom. A prediction contains one or more outcomes you can trade. |
| Prediction market | A system where people trade on the outcomes of binary questions about real-world events, with every outcome powered by its own Yes and No market. |
| Provider |
The platform that powers the prediction market mechanics: |
| Resolution | When the provider confirms the official result and marks the market as resolved. |
| Settlement | The process of turning a resolved result into payouts. Winning contracts settle at $1 per contract minus fees, and losing contracts settle at $0. |
| Trading volume | The total value of contracts traded for a specific outcome. |
| Value | An estimate of what your position is worth based on recent market prices. |
Disclaimer
Prediction markets in Phantom aren't available in all jurisdictions. They may involve risks, including but not limited to volatile pricing, limited liquidity, and potential regulatory changes. Trading prediction markets may incur transaction fees and other costs. If your prediction is incorrect, you may lose the entire amount you allocate to an event. References to third parties are informational only and don't imply endorsement or affiliation.