Prediction markets let you trade on the outcomes of real-world events across sports, politics, crypto, and culture. Markets are powered by Kalshi via DFlow. You don't need a Kalshi account—you can open positions, cash out, and claim payouts directly in Phantom.
Each contract is priced between $0 and $1 based on implied probability. If your prediction is correct, contracts settle at $1 and you receive the payout minus fees. If not, they settle at $0 and your spend is lost. You can also cash out early if liquidity is available.
Warning: When you open a position, Phantom mints outcome tokens into your wallet. Don't burn these tokens—burning them permanently prevents you from claiming a payout.
Requirements
- Supported region: Prediction markets aren't available everywhere. See Feature availability by region.
- SOL balance: You need a small amount of SOL to open positions, cash out, and claim payouts.
- No insider information: You may not trade any event if you have access to non-public information that could give you an unfair advantage.
Find a market
- On the Home tab, tap Predictions.
- Browse featured, trending, or live predictions, or filter by category.
- Select a prediction to see the question, available outcomes, and current chances.
- Tap View Rules to read the official market rules from Kalshi.
Open a position
- Select a market.
- Choose Yes or No.
- Enter your spend amount.
- Select your token (CASH, USDC, or another supported token).
- Review the fees and confirm.
Phantom swaps your token for outcome tokens representing your position.
Increase your position
- Tap an open position.
- Tap Buy More.
- Enter the additional amount and confirm.
Track your positions
Your position value updates in real time. The change indicator shows your gain or loss compared to your entry price.
Cash out early
You can close a position before the market resolves if liquidity is available.
- Tap an open position.
- Tap Cash Out.
- Confirm the sale amount.
The cash-out price reflects current market liquidity, not the theoretical value.
Close your position (if you win)
After the market resolves in your favor:
- Tap an open position (shows Payout Available).
- Tap Close to claim.
Your payout is returned in your original token. You need at least 0.01 SOL to claim.
If you lose
If you lose, the position disappears from the Predictions section, but remains under Recent Activity (clock icon) with a "Lost" status. Losing contracts settle at $0 and your spend is lost.
Disputes
If you believe a market was resolved incorrectly, contact Kalshi support at help.kalshi.com. Phantom doesn't determine market resolution. All resolution and payout data comes from Kalshi.
About outcome tokens
Outcome tokens are standard Solana SPL tokens that represent your position. These are standard Solana SPL tokens visible in blockchain explorers and Recent Activity, but not in your Phantom token list.
Phantom only supports using these tokens to cash out or claim payouts through the app.
Warning: Burning outcome tokens is permanent. If you accidentally burn outcome tokens (for example, using token cleanup tools), Phantom can't recover them.
Resolution and payouts
Markets don't resolve until the provider (Kalshi) confirms official results. You may see "Payout Pending" while results are being finalized—this can take 10-15 minutes for sports events or longer for other categories.
| Position status | Meaning |
|---|---|
| Payout Pending | Market closed, result not yet posted. This doesn't mean you won. Can take 10-15 minutes for sports, longer for other events. |
| Payout Available | Result confirmed, payout ready to claim. |
Phantom doesn't determine market resolution. All resolution and payout data comes from Kalshi.
Common issues
Can’t open new positions in a market
Some markets may become unavailable in Phantom due to partner requirements. If you already have an open position in a market that's no longer accessible, you can still close your position in that market, but you can’t open additional positions in that market.
Position disappeared after market resolved
The outcome didn't occur. Check Recent Activity for "Lost" status.
Can't claim a payout (cash out not working)
If you’re unable to claim a payout, it’s likely because you don’t have enough SOL to cover Solana network fees (also called gas). Network fees must be paid in SOL, even if you’re using CASH or USDC.
To avoid issues, keep at least 0.02 SOL in your wallet to cover a few transactions.
Add SOL to your wallet, then try claiming again.
Burned tokens by mistake
Irreversible. Phantom can't recover burned outcome tokens.
Trading unavailable
Kalshi maintenance runs Thursdays 3-5am ET.
FAQ
Can I hide prediction markets?
No. Prediction markets are always visible in Phantom.
What order types are supported?
Market orders only. You can't place limit orders or set custom prices.
Can I close my position early?
Yes. Tap your position → Cash Out → Sell.
Why can't I buy fractional contracts?
Contracts settle at $1 or $0, so only whole units are supported. Leftover amounts are automatically refunded.
How long until payout is available?
After the market resolves and results are confirmed. Sports events typically take 10-15 minutes; others may take longer.
Can I use a Ledger wallet?
No. Ledger hardware wallets aren't supported for prediction markets. You'll see a "Failed to deposit" error when trying to open a position with a Ledger account.
Fees
| Fee | Details |
|---|---|
| Per contract | Ranges from ~$0.0005 to ~$0.0125 depending on contract price. Shown in your order summary before you trade. |
| Gas | Opening and closing positions require a small amount of SOL from your account—even if you open a position with another token, such as CASH. |
| Token account creation | ~0.024 SOL one-time fee if you're the first to trade a market. |
Glossary
| Term | Definition |
|---|---|
| Chance | Implied probability based on current contract prices. Updates in real time. |
| Contract | The unit you buy. Settles at $1 if the outcome happens, $0 if it doesn't. |
| Position | The number of contracts you hold for a specific outcome. |
| Outcome tokens | Solana tokens representing your position (Yes or No tokens). |
| Cash out | Sell your position before the market resolves. |
| Resolution | When the provider confirms the official result. |
| Settlement | The process of converting results into payouts. |
| Value | Estimate of what your position is worth based on recent prices. |
Prediction markets in Phantom aren't available in all jurisdictions and may involve risks including volatile pricing, limited liquidity, and potential regulatory changes.