Trade predictions in Phantom

Prediction markets let you trade on the outcomes of real-world events across sports, politics, crypto, and culture. Markets in Phantom are powered by World Prediction Markets on Solana.

You can browse markets, make predictions, increase your positions, and cash out directly in the Phantom mobile app. Your positions are represented by Solana (SPL) tokens and settle automatically when the market resolves.

Note: Some older markets may no longer appear in discovery. If you already have an open position, you can still view it and sell/close it.

Before you trade

• You need to be located in a region where predictions markets are available. See Feature availability by region.
• You may not trade any event if you have access to non-public information that could give you an unfair advantage.
• You need a small amount of SOL for network fees (gas), used to open, buy more, and cash out positions. If you trade from your Cash account, trades are gasless.

Find markets

1. Open the Predict tab.
2. Browse featured, trending, or live markets, or filter by category.
3. Open a market to view the question, available outcomes, current chances, and market rules.

From a market page, you can browse related markets, follow live chat, and view recent trades.

You can also check in on live Chat and browse the Trades feed to see what people are saying and what's happening in the market in real time.

Make a prediction

1. Open a market.
2. Review market details like the chart, stats, timeline, rules, and disclosures.
3. In the Make a Prediction section, choose an outcome. Or tap Trade, then choose an outcome.
4. Choose whether you think the selected outcome will happen (Yes) or not (No).
5. Enter your spend amount.
6. Select how you want to pay (your Cash account, USDC, or another supported Solana token).
7. Review the fees, then confirm.

Tip: If you don’t have enough SOL to pay network fees, top up your balance or pay using your Cash account instead.

Increase your position

1. Tap an open position.
2. Tap Buy More.
3. Enter the additional amount and confirm.

Track your position

Your position value updates in real time. The change indicator shows your gain or loss compared to your opening price.

Select a position to view its details:

• Position Value: An estimate of what your position is worth at current market prices.
• Cost: What you paid to open the position (your total spend).
• Change: How much your position value has moved compared to your cost.
• Payout if right: The amount you would receive if your prediction is correct when the market resolves.
• Chance: The implied probability based on current prices.

Cash out

You can close a position before the market resolves if liquidity is available. The cash-out price reflects current market liquidity, not the theoretical value.

1. On Home, under Predictions, tap an open position.
2. Tap Cash Out.
3. Confirm the sale amount.

When you cash out or a market settles, the sale amount arrives in your Cash account.

Resolution

Markets resolve only after official results are confirmed. Until then, you may see Payout Pending. This can take 10-15 minutes for sports events or longer for other categories.

Phantom doesn’t determine market outcomes. Resolution data comes directly from the provider.

Settlement

When a market resolves, your position settles automatically according to that market’s published rules. The rules are sourced directly from World Prediction Markets and lay out the resolution mechanism. 

• If your prediction is correct, the payout arrives as CASH stablecoin in you main Phantom wallet, the account that's currently active (not in your Cash account).
• If your prediction is wrong, the position settles at $0, and the amount you spent is not returned.

Disputes

If you believe a market was resolved incorrectly, contact the market's provider support. Phantom doesn't determine market resolution. All resolution and payout data comes from the provider.

Outcome tokens

Outcome tokens are standard Solana SPL tokens that represent your position. These tokens are visible in blockchain explorers and History.

Phantom only supports using these tokens to cash out or claim payouts through the app.

Warning: Burning outcome tokens is permanent. If you accidentally burn outcome tokens (for example, using token cleanup tools), Phantom cannot recover them.

Fees

For prediction market trades, Phantom charges a probability-weighted calculation rather than a flat-rate.

Prediction fee = 0.1 * p * (1 - p) * C

Where:

• p = contract price, expressed as a decimal between 0 and 1
• C = number of contracts traded

Fees tend to be lowest when contract prices near $0 or $1 and highest when contract prices near $0.50.

Example:

If you buy 100 Yes contracts at $0.75 each, you will be charged a Phantom fee of $1.875.

Note that you may also be charged a network fee (gas fee) and a token account creation fee in addition to the Phantom fee.

Common issues

Can't open new positions in a market

Opening new positions isn't currently supported in your location, but you can still browse markets and sell any positions you already hold. We're working to expand access to more regions.

Position disappeared after a market resolved

This is expected. Positions always disappear after markets resolve, whether you win or lose. You can always see your trades in History.

Burned tokens by mistake

Burning outcome tokens is irreversible. Phantom cannot recover burned outcome tokens.

FAQ

Can I build on prediction markets in Phantom?

Phantom Prediction Markets are not available for external development, and we do not offer a public API for this feature. Building on top of Prediction Markets is not supported at this time.

Can I trade predictions in the browser extension?

No. Prediction markets are only available through the Phantom mobile app.

What order types are supported?

Market orders only. You can't place limit orders or set custom prices.

Can I close my position early?

Yes. Open your position, tap Cash Out, then confirm the sale.

Why can't I buy fractional contracts?

Contracts settle at $1 or $0, so only whole units are supported. Leftover amounts are automatically refunded.

How long until payout is available?

After the market resolves and results are confirmed. Sports events typically take 10-15 minutes; others may take longer.

Can I use a Ledger wallet?

No. Ledger hardware wallets aren't supported for prediction markets. You'll see a "Failed to deposit" error when trying to open a position with a Ledger account.

Glossary

Prediction markets in Phantom aren't available in all jurisdictions and may involve risks including volatile pricing, limited liquidity, and potential regulatory changes.

View full disclosures