Trade predictions in Phantom
Prediction markets let you trade on the outcomes of real-world events across sports, politics, crypto, and culture. Markets in Phantom are powered by World Prediction Markets on Solana.
You can browse markets, make predictions, increase your positions, and cash out directly in the Phantom mobile app. Winning payouts are credited automatically after settlement.
Note: Some older markets may no longer appear in discovery. If you already have an open position, you can still view it and sell/close it.
What you need #
- Be in a region where predictions markets are available. See Feature availability by region.
- Do not trade an event if you have access to non-public information that could give you an unfair advantage.
- Keep a small amount of SOL for network fees when opening, increasing, or cashing out positions using tokens from your portfolio. Trades funded from your Cash account are gasless.
Discover markets #
- Open the Phantom mobile app.
- Open the Predict tab.
- Browse featured, trending, or live markets, or filter by category.
- Open a market to review its question, outcomes, current chances, and rules.
Review the rules before trading. They explain what determines the outcome, including relevant dates, price sources, and resolution criteria.
You can also check in on Live Chat to see what people are saying about the market in real time.
Make a prediction #
- On the Predict tab, open a market.
- Review its chart, stats, timeline, rules, and disclosures.
- In Make a Prediction, choose an outcome. Or tap one of the options at the bottom of the screen.
- Choose Yes if you think the outcome will happen, or No if you think it will not.
- Enter your spend amount.
- Choose your payment source: Cash, SOL, or another supported Solana token.
- Review the order and fees, then confirm.
Tip: If you don’t have enough SOL for network fees, add SOL or pay using your Cash account.
Increase your position #
Buy more contracts for the same outcome.
- On Home, under Predictions, open your position.
- Tap Buy More.
- Enter the additional amount.
- Review and confirm.
Track your position #
Open a position to view how it's performing:
| Detail | Meaning |
|---|---|
| Position Value | An estimate of its value at current market prices. |
| Cost | Your total spend to open or increase the position. |
| Change | The difference between the displayed value and your cost. |
| Payout if right | The amount you would receive if your prediction is correct at settlement. |
| Chance | The implied probability based on market prices. |
Cash out #
You can sell a position before settlement if liquidity is available.
- On Home, under Predictions, tap an open position.
- Tap Cash Out.
- Confirm the sale amount.
The sale amount arrives in your Cash account.
Early cash-out requires someone willing to take the other side of the trade. In thin or lopsided markets, you may be unable to sell at your preferred price, or sell at all, even when the position appears profitable.
Resolution #
Resolution determines which outcome satisfies the market’s published rules. Phantom does not decide the result.
The end of a real-world event does not necessarily mean the market has settled. For sports and other real-world events, a provisional result may be followed by a challenge period before final settlement. Sports results can take around 10–15 minutes to resolve, but some markets take longer.
Check the individual market’s rules rather than treating an estimated time as a deadline. See When does a market settle?
How crypto markets determine the outcome #
Crypto markets use the price source and calculation specified in their rules. Some use a time-weighted average price, or TWAP, which measures an average price over a defined period.
A chart from another exchange may use different prices or timestamps. A green candle alone does not establish that an “Up” prediction won.
See Who decides the outcome of a market? and What is a TWAP?
Settlement #
Settlement processes positions and payouts according to the resolved outcome.
- Correct prediction: Your payout is credited automatically as CASH to the Phantom account that was active when the market resolved. For example, if Account 1 was active, the payout is sent there.
- Incorrect prediction: The position settles at $0, and your spend is not returned.
You do not need to claim or redeem a winning payout manually.
Resolution and payout completion are separate steps. A market may have resolved while its payout is still being processed.
Canceled or unclear outcomes #
Some markets cannot resolve to a clear Yes or No. Fr example, when an event is voided or postponed indefinitely. Depending on the market’s rules, both outcomes may receive a partial payout.
See World’s explanation of unclear outcomes.
Disputes #
All resolution and payout data comes from the provider. If you believe a market was resolved incorrectly, contact Phantom Support.
Outcome tokens #
Your position is represented by standard Solana SPL tokens called outcome tokens. You may see these in blockchain explorers.
Warning: Do not burn outcome tokens using token cleanup tools. Burning is permanent, and Phantom cannot recover burned tokens.
Fees #
Phantom uses a probability-weighted fee calculation rather than a flat rate:
Prediction fee = 0.1 * p * (1 - p) * CWhere:
-
p= contract price, expressed as a decimal between 0 and 1. -
C= number of contracts traded.
Fees are lowest near contract prices of $0 or $1 and highest near $0.50.
For example, buying 100 Yes contracts at $0.75 each incurs a Phantom fee of $1.875.
| Fee | Details |
|---|---|
| Prediction fee | Depends on contract price and quantity. Shown before you confirm. |
| Network fee and token account creation | Trades using portfolio tokens require a small amount of SOL. No SOL is required when trading from your Cash account. |
View your prediction history #
You can view a history of all your prediction trades in one place.
- On Home, tab Predictions.
- Tap History.
This shows your trades for the selected Phantom account. For example, Account 1.
Troubleshooting #
Can’t cash out or “Quote unavailable” #
A cash-out requires an executable quote. Low liquidity or limited demand for your outcome may prevent a sale.
The displayed position value is not a guaranteed cash-out amount. Selling requires an executable quote, and the amount available may differ from the displayed value.
If you believe the failure is an app issue, contact Phantom Support.
Position disappeared #
Positions leave the active positions view after resolution, whether they won or lost. Check History for your trades and settlement activity.
Disappearance alone does not confirm that a winning payout arrived. Check the Phantom account that was active when the market resolved.
If the position disappeared before resolution, or a winning payout is missing, contact Phantom Support.
Position or payout remains pending #
Check the market’s rules and status. An event ending, a market resolving, and a payout completing are different stages. For provider background, see My market ended, why haven’t I been paid yet?
If the position remains pending after the market should have resolved, try adding 1 CASH to your Phantom wallet. You can do so by withdrawing CASH from your Cash account. If it remains pending, contact Phantom Support.
Burned tokens by mistake #
Burning outcome tokens is irreversible. Phantom cannot recover them.
FAQ #
Can I trade predictions in the browser extension? #
No. Prediction markets are only available through the Phantom mobile app.
What order types are supported? #
Market orders only. Limit orders and custom order prices are not supported.
Can I close my position early? #
Yes, if an executable quote is available. See Cash out.
My prediction was correct. Where is my payout? #
Payouts are credited automatically as CASH to the Phantom account that was active when the market resolved. You can look for a Won entry for this market in History.
If payment has not arrived, see Position or payout remains pending.
Can I buy fractional contracts? #
No. Phantom supports whole contracts only. Leftover amounts are automatically refunded.
Can I use a Ledger wallet? #
No. Ledger accounts are not supported for prediction markets. Attempting to open a position with a Ledger account shows a Failed to deposit error.
Can I build on prediction markets in Phantom? #
No. Phantom does not offer a public API for this feature, and external development is not supported.
Prediction markets in Phantom aren't available in all jurisdictions and may involve risks including volatile pricing, limited liquidity, and potential regulatory changes.