Prediction markets let you trade on the outcomes of real-world events across sports, politics, economics, and culture. In the United States, prediction markets in Phantom are offered through Kalshi, a US-regulated exchange.

Here's how to find a market and place, manage, and cash out a trade.

Before you start #

• Prediction markets are available only to eligible users in supported US jurisdictions.
• For wallets created with a Google or Apple account, you’ll need to complete a security upgrade in your Phantom wallet. See Migrate your Phantom wallet to sign in without the PIN for details.
• You’ll need to verify your identity to meet Kalshi’s identity-verification requirements. See Verify your identity for predictions (US) for details.

Make a prediction #

1. Open the Phantom mobile app.
2. Open the Predict tab and browse available markets.
3. Open a market to review the event, available outcomes, current chances, and market rules. You can also join the live chat.
4. Choose an outcome, then choose Yes or No.
5. Enter your spend amount and choose how you want to pay. You can pay with your Cash balance or any token on Solana.
6. Tap Details to review the quote and fees.
7. Confirm your order.

Your payment funds the purchase at Kalshi before your position opens. To understand what happens during each stage, see Fund movement.

Your quote includes the following details:

Track your open positions #

You can view your open positions on the Home tab, under Predictions, or on the Predict tab. If you bought multiple outcomes for the same event, you can find them on the event page, under Your Positions.

Tap an open position to view its performance and details.

Increase your position #

Increase your position by buying more contracts at current market prices.

1. Tap an open position.
2. Tap Buy More.
3. Enter your spend amount and choose how you want to pay.
4. Review the quote and fees.
5. Confirm your order.

Cash out early #

You can close an open position before the market resolves, if liquidity is available. The amount you can receive depends on the prices and available liquidity when you sell.

1. Tap an open position.
2. Tap Cash Out.
3. Review the sale amount and confirm.

After your sale completes, the proceeds are returned to your Cash account through a withdrawal from Kalshi. The sale and the transfer back to Phantom are separate steps, so your Cash balance may not update immediately.

If the sale appears in History but the funds haven’t arrived, see Troubleshoot trades and positions on Kalshi prediction markets (US).

View your trade history #

1. Tap your profile avatar in the upper left.
2. Tap History.
3. Tap Trade to view your prediction trading activity.

Purchase entries begin with Bought and identify the market. When a position settles, the result appears as Won for a correct prediction or Lost for an incorrect prediction.

Your purchase and settlement appear as separate entries. Buying more contracts or cashing out can add further activity for the same market.

Dispute a market outcome #

If you believe a market resolved incorrectly, first review the market’s published rules in the app.

Kalshi determines market outcomes and resolution. If you still believe there’s an error after reviewing the rules, contact support@kalshi.com.

Fees #

Check the fee breakdown before confirming a trade or cashing out.

Fund movement #

When you make a prediction, funds flow from your selected payment source in Phantom to Kalshi to buy contracts. After you sell or receive a winning payout, available proceeds return automatically to your Cash account through Stripe.

Estimated position value calculation #

Before you buy, Estimated position value shows an estimate of what you could receive if you sold the position at the current sell price, after estimated selling fees (prediction fees at the moment of sale):

Current sell price × number of contracts − estimated selling fees

The buy price and sell price can differ. This difference is called the bid-ask spread. Because of the spread and fees, your estimated position value may be lower than the amount you spend, even immediately after opening the position.

For example, a $5 purchase may show an estimated position value of $4.82. The $4.82 estimates what you could receive from selling at current prices; it is separate from the payout if your prediction is correct.

This value changes as the sell price changes. It is an estimate, and the amount available when you cash out may differ.

Market resolution and settlement #

Resolution happens when Kalshi confirms the official result. Until then, you may see Payout Pending. This can take 10–15 minutes for sports events or longer for other categories.

Phantom does not determine market outcomes. Resolution data and timing come directly from Kalshi.

Settlement happens when your position is processed according to the resolved outcome and the market’s published rules.

• If your prediction was correct, your payout becomes available at Kalshi after the market settles. Phantom automatically initiates the withdrawal process to return available funds to your Cash account.
• If your prediction was wrong, the position settles at $0, and the amount you spent is not returned.

What happens if an NFL game ends in a tie? #

For Kalshi game-winner markets without a separate Tie outcome, a game that ends tied after regulation and overtime settles at $0.50 per contract for both teams.

For example, if you hold 10 contracts, their settlement value is $5. This is based on the number of contracts you hold, not the amount you originally spent.

Always check the market’s rules. Markets with a separate Tie outcome, or markets for other sports or specific periods of a game, may settle differently.

The roles of Kalshi and Phantom #

Kalshi provides and operates the underlying markets. It creates and lists event contracts, defines each market's rules, executes trades, settles positions, determines outcomes and payouts, and enforces eligibility and compliance requirements.

Phantom provides the in-app experience for accessing Kalshi markets, including account setup and identity-verification flows, displaying markets and positions, and facilitating the movement of funds.

Phantom does not determine market outcomes. Resolution data and timing come directly from Kalshi.

Trading availability and maintenance #

Kalshi has a recurring maintenance window on Thursdays, 3–5 AM ET, during which trading may be affected.

Check Kalshi's status page for any active incidents.

Outcome tokens #

Outcome tokens are standard Solana SPL tokens that represent your position. These tokens are visible in blockchain explorers and History.

Phantom only supports using these tokens to cash out or claim payouts through the app.

Prediction markets in Phantom aren't available in all jurisdictions and may involve risks including volatile pricing, limited liquidity, and potential regulatory changes.

View full disclosures